Your Currency Trading Profits

Central Bank week is over now for the currency trading world. the central banks of the United States, England, Australia and the ERB all held interest rate meetings this week. All four left interest rates unchanged. Australia however, strongly implied a rate cut for their next meeting in a month’s time.

The major theme I took from all the statements of these Banks was the concern for growth or lack of same as we muddle through the third quarter and close in on the fourth. This was highlighted by ECB President Trichet who stated  economic growth will be “particularly weak” through the third quarter, suggesting the ECB is reluctant to raising interest rates again to curb inflation.

So all four major institutions have opted for growth over inflation. Rate hikes are on hold. Are rate cuts soon in the offing? They are for Australia. How about Europe and England? This is all US Dollar bullish. The US is finished cutting rates and may in fact hike by the end of the year. I doubt it but maybe. This will keep the bid to the Buck.

Technically the dollar seems to have broken its short term downtrends in all the major currencies except the Euro. We need to break 1.5285 for that to happen. And I think it will.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. If you like what you read here please sign up for my FREE Forex  Newsletter. The price is right. Also please download my Free Report on trading currencies with my compliments. If there is something you would like me to write about please let me know. It is my aim to provide you with quality content and I welcome your comments. Thank you.

P.P.S. If you would rather trade a system that is easy to follow PLUS you don’t have to learn any fundamental or technical analysis, get Forex Trading Machine. To see my review of the product click here and pay close attention to my special offer at the end of the review.

It’s July 15,2008 and the US dollar has just hit an all time low versus the Euro over 1.6040. If you heard or saw one commercial that day you saw twenty on how it was time to get out of US assets and change your dollars into Euros or some other currency.

On March 17,2008 Gold was trading at almost $1040 per ounce. Again all you read and heard (Still hear) is how you need to immediately buy gold to “protect” yourself against the coming disaster.

On July 11, 2008 crude oil trades over $147.00 per barrel. The “talking heads” on TV and all over the radio say that oil is on it’s way to $200 a barrel at the very least.

Fast forward to July 30,2008. Gold trades at 894.00 per ounce. Oil trades at $122.00 per barrel. The Euro is trading at 1.55 to the dollar. Had you listened to all the soothsayers and all the “gods” of finance and all the internet marketing hype out there your results would have been as follows :

• You would have lost over $14,000 on ONE futures contract of Gold.
• You would have lost $24,000 on ONE futures contract of Crude Oil.
• You would have lost $10,000 on TWO futures contracts of Euro.

The fact is, anyone can teach you to buy or sell. But very few people can teach you how to TRADE. And before you place your hard earned money at risk you need to learn how to TRADE. You need to learn about risk control , your own trading style, some fundamentals and some technicals and even controlling your emotions.

I’m tired of seeing, hearing and reading hyped up ads about how you can make “thousands” every day trading Forex. I’m tired of good people losing their entire investment and more. I’ve traded currencies successfully for over twenty years and I want to help you learn to trade also. Listen …. the fact is NOBODY knows where the dollar is going (or gold or oil for that matter). but I can show you the RIGHT way to be prepared so you can take advantage of the Currency markets … in EITHER direction.

So , I’m holding a free teleseminar on Tuesday , August 5th at 8 pm Eastern time.  I’m going to be grilled by Internet Marketing Expert Bob “the Teacher” Jenkins. No question is off limits. And I’m sure Bob (as a former teacher for ten years)  will try his best to get me to reveal my secrets to trading currencies.

Stay tuned here for more details as to how you can listen in on this free class. In the meantime, thanks for reading this rant and I hope I speak to you on Tuesday. And here’s wishing you the best in your trading and investments.

The US dollar has decided to rally today. The Euro has broken support at 1.5610. We have been as low as 1.5595. The British Pound is also underperforming after a weak CBI survey. Treasury yields are slightly higher against yesterday’s closes. Crude prices are down over three dollars on the day. Crude oil is now down 18 percent from its July 11 all time high. With the break of 1.5610 , we should see a run at 1.5300. The Japanese Yen , however, must break 108.65 for the US dollar to continue its rally.

French consumer confidence deteriorated to -48 in July , weaker relative to both June (-46) and the market’s expectation (-47). Importantly, the INSEE quarterly industrial survey for the second quarter showed that overall demand for French industry fell heavily with the balance turning negative to -6 from 13.

The UK CBI distributive trades survey came in very weak, with the retail sales balance falling to -36 from -9, the weakest since the survey began. Lending numbers released today were also weak, with both mortgage and consumer credit rising at a weak pace. Interest rate markets continue to price a twenty percent chance of a hike from the MPC next week. I think that’s not going to happen and remain short Cable.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. If you like what you read here please sign up for my FREE Forex  Newsletter. The price is right. Also please download my Free Report on trading currencies with my compliments. If there is something you would like me to write about please let me know. It is my aim to provide you with quality content and I welcome your comments. Thank you.

P.P.S. If you would rather trade a system that is easy to follow PLUS you don’t have to learn any fundamental or technical analysis, get Forex Trading Machine. To see my review of the product click here and pay close attention to my special offer at the end of the review.

The US Dollar is weaker today , with the Euro trading through Friday’s 1.5744 highs and the dollar versus Yen failing to sustain a brief Asia session test above 108. The British Pound is doing poorly after weak house price numbers. US yields have moved lower again, with the two year down five basis points and the spread to German yields back at 174 basis points. Any optimism for US markets over the confirmation that the housing bill has been passed by Congress over the weekend may be tempered by news late Friday that regulators would shut down two small national banks in the southwest. Also and importantly hawkish Minneapolis Fed President Stern told the Financial Times that he sees the headwinds facing the economy as picking up steam and the credit squeeze could get worse, though he also noted that policy settings are appropriate to deal with this risk while “in my own mind it is a little bit more open to question on inflation.”

The US Dollar’s failure to take out key Euro support last week around 1.5610 despite periods of firmer US yields, falling crude prices and rising equity markets is significant. I believe that all three of these dollar boosters are liable to change course in the weeks ahead, especially US front end yields. In fact, yield differentials could move against the USD this week if key data on Thursday and Friday is too weak to accommodate current market pricing of a rate hike by year-end. I remain long the Euro against the US dollar.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. If you like what you read here please sign up for my FREE Forex  Newsletter. The price is right. Also please download my Free Report on trading currencies with my compliments. If there is something you would like me to write about please let me know. It is my aim to provide you with quality content and I welcome your comments. Thank you.

P.P.S. If you would rather trade a system that is easy to follow PLUS you don’t have to learn any fundamental or technical analysis, get Forex Trading Machine. To see my review of the product click here and pay close attention to my special offer at the end of the review.

The US Dollar is stronger today against European currencies as Euro area sentiment surveys came in far worse than even the pessimistic consensus predicted and UK retail sales were also disappointing. The Euro has tested below key 1.5650 support, and Sterling has slipped back below 1.99. The Kiwi has remained heavy following yesterday’s semi-surprise rate cut, while the Japanese Yen is the best performer as other G10 yields tumble. The yield on the new US two  year Treasury has fallen 10basis points to 2.72%, but the decline in Euro rates has been more dramatic. In fact, the US-German two year spread has narrowed to 172 basis points, around levels which were trading before Trichet signaled a July rate hike in early June.

Survey evidence continues to point to a big slowdown in the Eurozone. The German IFO indicator plunged to 97.5 after 101.3 in June, below consensus of 100.0 and the weakest reading since November 2005, with both current assessment and expectation indicators off sharply. The French Insee and Italian ISAE posted similar declines and hit multi-year low levels. Also, the Eurozone flash estimates of PMI indicators saw both manufacturing and services components deteriorating further in July, bringing the Euro area composite PMI to 47.8 from 49.3 in June, below consensus of 49.0 and its lowest level since 2002. Overall, today’s data supports the growing perception that the Eurozone economy is deteriorating.

I would be careful about getting long dollars however. we may see a pullback to 1.5300 but I doubt much more. I remain long Euro versus the US dollar.

Good luck and good trading.

P.S. If you like what you read here please sign up for my FREE Forex  Newsletter. The price is right. Also please download my Free Report on trading currencies with my compliments. If there is something you would like me to write about please let me know. It is my aim to provide you with quality content and I welcome your comments. Thank you.

P.P.S. If you would rather trade a system that is easy to follow PLUS you don’t have to learn any fundamental or technical analysis, get Forex Trading Machine. To see my review of the product click here and pay close attention to my special offer at the end of the review.